The most optimistic prediction for gas prices by 2014 is $4.75/mbtu, with the median analyst forecast about $4.30, according to Bloomberg. I believe the glut of gas will end much earlier, by late 2013. Here is why.
1. The large U.S. gas producers, like Chesapeake and ExxonMobil have already drastically cut drilling and new well development.
2. Many convertible factories, businesses, and commercial facilities that can switch fuels have switched to natural gas in the past two years. This will increase demand in 2013.
3. U.S. Electric utilities are consuming record volumes of gas. Consumption will climb again in 2013.
4. Its statistically unlikely the northeast U.S. will have another winter as mild as 2011/2012.
5. Global economy improvements, while modest, will still make 2013 the best year for growth since 2008.